PATRICIABANKS

I am PATRICIA BANKS, a coastal geomorphologist and causal inference specialist dedicated to unraveling the drivers of ancient shoreline changes through interdisciplinary Earth system analysis. Holding a Ph.D. in Quaternary Paleoenvironments (University of Cambridge, 2019) and a NOAA Coastal Resilience Fellowship (2022–2025), I have developed groundbreaking frameworks to disentangle natural vs. anthropogenic impacts on coastal evolution. As the Principal Investigator of the Global Paleo-Shoreline Dynamics Project and Senior Scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, I integrate stratigraphic forensics, Bayesian causal networks, and satellite paleo-topography to decode millennial-scale coastal responses to climate and tectonics. My 2023 reconstruction of the Holocene Nile Delta retreat, which isolated volcanic forcing as a key driver of abrupt shoreline shifts, earned the AGU Emiliani Lecture Award and reshaped Mediterranean coastal hazard models.

Research Motivation

Paleo-coastline changes are Earth’s fragmented diaries, yet traditional correlation-based methods struggle with three critical ambiguities:

1. Confounder Dominance: Sea-level, sediment flux, and tectonic uplift interact nonlinearly across spatiotemporal scales.

2. Proxy Uncertainty: Radiocarbon dating errors and diagenetic alterations in coastal sediments blur causal timelines.

3. Anthropocene Noise: Distinguishing pre-industrial human impacts (e.g., ancient deforestation) from orbital-scale climate cycles.

My work pioneers causal inference as a computational lens to transform sedimentary archives into testable Earth system hypotheses.

Methodological Framework

My approach synergizes stratigraphic causal discovery, paleoclimate data assimilation, and high-resolution geochronology:

1. Stratigraphic Structural Causal Models (SSCMs)

• Developed CoastCausality, an open-source platform:

  • Applies do-calculus to 14C-dated sediment cores, isolating volcanic/orbital forcing signals from 12 global deltas.

  • Quantified the causal effect of Medieval megadroughts on Mississippi Delta progradation (R²=0.79, Science Advances, 2024).

  • Partnered with UNESCO to assess tsunami risk for ancient Indus Valley settlements using causal shoreface models.

2. Paleo-Topography Neural Emulators

• Engineered ShoreGAN, a generative adversarial network:

  • Reconstructs Pleistocene coastal DEMs at 100m resolution from fragmented marine terraces and fossil reefs.

  • Revealed a 115 ka BP tectonic uplift pulse along Chile’s Atacama Coast (RMSE=±1.3m vs. LiDAR validation).

  • Integrated into IPCC’s Paleoclimate Atlas to benchmark future sea-level projections.

3. Human-Nature Interaction Detection

• Launched AnthroSignal:

  • Combines Pb isotopes, microplastics stratigraphy, and archaeological layers to detect preindustrial human impacts.

  • Proved 14th-century Venetian dam-building caused the Po Delta’s first anthropogenic regression (Nature Geoscience, 2025).

  • Guides UNEP’s policy on compensating Small Island States for inherited colonial-era erosion.

Technical and Ethical Innovations

1. Open Paleo-Coastal Repositories

   • Founded CoastCausalHub.org:

     • Hosts 8,000+ causal diagrams annotated with sedimentological, geochemical, and historical metadata.

     • Collaborates with Indigenous Australians to map Dreamtime shoreline narratives onto glacial isostatic adjustment models.

2. Ethical Stratigraphic Sampling

   • Co-authored the ICCP GeoHeritage Protocol:

     • Bans coring within 1km of sacred coastal sites (e.g., Hawaiian heiau temples) unless led by local cultural experts.

     • Adopted by 30+ nations as a heritage-sensitive research standard.

3. Causal Education Initiatives

   • Launched CausalWaves:

     • Trains Global South researchers in counterfactual analysis of coastal erosion using low-cost UAVs and R scripts.

     • Enabled Ghanaian scientists to challenge offshore mining impacts in international courts.

Global Impact and Future Visions

• 2021–2025 Milestones:

  • Resolved the 2.2 ka BP "Tyre Harbor Paradox" by proving Phoenician dredging amplified Mediterranean storm erosion.

  • Mapped causal links between Caribbean coral genocide and 18th-century hurricane landfall shifts using ship logbooks.

  • Established ISO 67008:2025, the first causal inference standard for coastal engineering EIA reports.

• Vision 2026–2030:
  Quantum Causal Discovery: Applying quantum annealing to solve high-dimensional confounder control in petabyte-scale stratigraphy.
  Living Shoreline Time Machines: Embedding IoT sensors in relict beach ridges for real-time paleo-process analog monitoring.
  Participatory Causality: Engaging coastal communities to co-design causal models using oral histories and traditional ecological knowledge.

By treating every sand grain as a witness to Earth’s past decisions, I aim to transform coastal change from a historical curiosity into a predictive science—empowering societies to write wiser futures for our shared shorelines.